The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes. Volume 8, Treatise on Probability
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- Create Date：2021-06-17 09:52:57
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：John Maynard Keynes
- ISBN：1107658063
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Summary
Originally written as a Fellowship Dissertation for King's College， Cambridge， between 1906 and 1909， Keynes's Treatise represents his earliest large-scale writing。 Rewritten for publication during 1909 12 and 1920 1， it was the first systematic work in English on the logical foundations of probability for 55 years。 As it filled an obvious gap in the existing theory of knowledge， it received an enthusiastic reception from contemporaries on publication。 Even today amongst philosophers， the essence of Keynes's approach to probability is established。 This edition reprints， with Keynes's own corrections， the first edition of the Treatise。 An introduction by Professor Richard Braithwaite， formerly Knightbridge Professor of Moral Philosophy in Cambridge and a close friend of Keynes from the time he was finishing this book， sets Keynes's ideas in perspective。
Reviews
Andrew
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This may quite possibly be the most personally influential book I have read in my life。Not only did I find myself with an entirely fresh perspective on the reality of probability & statistics， but also the experience of thought itself。In particular I found Keynes argument as to the true bounds of human rationality & what is within & without it in terms of probability & statistical analysis， I found truly monumental。This thinking is introduce so eloquently in terms of viewing probability a matter This may quite possibly be the most personally influential book I have read in my life。Not only did I find myself with an entirely fresh perspective on the reality of probability & statistics， but also the experience of thought itself。In particular I found Keynes argument as to the true bounds of human rationality & what is within & without it in terms of probability & statistical analysis， I found truly monumental。This thinking is introduce so eloquently in terms of viewing probability a matter of epistemology & only a portion presenting as valid within mathematical science。Findings are ultimately reached in terms of constructing all thought in terms of proposition chains & the perceived persistence of such chains determine the level of personal investment & the reality of such chains determine the robustness or consequentially the fragility in ones thinking。 。。。more
Liquidlasagna
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[found in the following list]Books with the best decision theoretic and philosophical foundationby Michael Emmett BradyThe following books will provide an optimal understanding of how one should study and organize the data and observations that comprise the social sciences。 These books provide a broad foundation in logical， epistemological， and philosophical techniques that are sound and valid。 A reader who masters these books will quickly grasp the complex， dynamic， nonlinear aspects of social [found in the following list]Books with the best decision theoretic and philosophical foundationby Michael Emmett BradyThe following books will provide an optimal understanding of how one should study and organize the data and observations that comprise the social sciences。 These books provide a broad foundation in logical， epistemological， and philosophical techniques that are sound and valid。 A reader who masters these books will quickly grasp the complex， dynamic， nonlinear aspects of social science systems as they evolve through time。1。 The General Theory of Employment， Interest， and Money - John Maynard Keynes2。 A Treatise on Probability - John Maynard Keynes3。 Risk， Uncertainty and Profit - Frank H。 Knight4。 The Theory of Economic Development - Joseph A。 Schumpter5。 The Wealth of Nations - Adam Smith6。 Risk， Ambiguity and Decision - Daniel Ellsberg7。 The （Mis）behavior of Markets - Beniot Mandelbrot and Richard L。 Hudson8。 Probability， Econometrics and Truth - Hugo A。 Keuzenkamp9。 The Unbround Prometheus: Technological Change and the Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present - Second Edition - David S。 Landes10。 The Laws of Thought - George Boole11。 The Black Swan - Nassim Nicholas Taleb12。 Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Nicholas Taleb13。 J。M。 Keynes Theory of Decision Making， Induction and Analogy - Michael Emmett Brady 。。。more
Simon Proulx
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Timeless book on epistemology and philosophy of probability。 Predicts the importance of overfitting in modern statistics - the reliance on data and computing power rather than sound inductive process。 It gives a complete review of probability up to the early 1900s。 From Bernouilli and Hume to Laplace to Tchebycheff and many in between。 Some concepts are dated and the 1900’s writing style slows down the reading， but to paraphrase Dalio I suggest you favor the great （ie。 this） over the new。
Matt
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Keynes spends a good deal of time focused on the real-world implications of stylized assumptions embedded in statistical theorems。 While it sometimes feels like a bit of a straw man， the broader lens is absolutely essential for practitioners attempting to rely statistical inference; so the book is a good reminder just how little we can know with confidence from apparently-robust statistics。 The book also lends itself reasonably well to picking out the interesting sections and skipping the drier Keynes spends a good deal of time focused on the real-world implications of stylized assumptions embedded in statistical theorems。 While it sometimes feels like a bit of a straw man， the broader lens is absolutely essential for practitioners attempting to rely statistical inference; so the book is a good reminder just how little we can know with confidence from apparently-robust statistics。 The book also lends itself reasonably well to picking out the interesting sections and skipping the drier math。 。。。more
Andrew Davis
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Some books need to be read more than once to be fully appreciated。 This is one of them。 It combines the probability theory with its philosophical and historical aspects。
John
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It is really a fantastic work discussing （mostly） the philosophy of probability。 It was written nearly 100 years ago so sometimes the writing tends to drag a bit or is not concise。 However， it is well worth the time。 I would recommend specifically a close read of parts I， IV， and V。 Also chapter XXX is excellent。 I would skim parts II and III unless you really want to get into the weeds on derivations and theorems。 All in all， it is still an extremely relevant contribution to the philosophical u It is really a fantastic work discussing （mostly） the philosophy of probability。 It was written nearly 100 years ago so sometimes the writing tends to drag a bit or is not concise。 However， it is well worth the time。 I would recommend specifically a close read of parts I， IV， and V。 Also chapter XXX is excellent。 I would skim parts II and III unless you really want to get into the weeds on derivations and theorems。 All in all， it is still an extremely relevant contribution to the philosophical underpinnings of probability and statistics。 。。。more
John
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Deep， thoughtful approach to the logicist foundations of probability。 Unconventional by current standards。 Stimulating。 Not a good intro for a novice。 Excellent。
Angela Randall
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Available to read free in public domain on Project Gutenberg here。 Available to read free in public domain on Project Gutenberg here。 。。。more
JDP
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